0000
Written
1873
Addressed to
1888

At present weapons are being changed every ten years, and even more frequently. In another fifteen years or so, people will use for shooting not rifles but some kind of lightning, some sort of a machine emitting a holocaustal electrical stream. Tell me: what can we invent in this line so as to surprise our neighbors? What if in fifteen years every great power will have secretly stored away one such surprise for any kind of eventuality? Alas, we are merely capable of imitating and purchasing ammunition from others, and—at best—of repairing it at home. To invent such machines we should have to have our own independent, and not purchased, science, not an imported but a free one—one that has taken root in our soil. As yet we do not possess such a science, nor do we even have a purchased one.

Fyodor Mikhailovich Dostoevsky

The Diary Of A Writer

Annotation

Dostoevsky's 'holocaustal electrical stream' was speculative, but his diagnosis of Russia's military-industrial dependency was surgically precise. The country relied on foreign arms purchases and licensed designs — Berdan rifles designed by an American, naval vessels built in British yards — and the gap became lethal at Tsushima in 1905, when Japan destroyed the Russian fleet with superior technology. Weapons did change every decade, as he predicted: the Maxim gun (1884), smokeless powder (1886), and modern artillery transformed warfare between the Franco-Prussian War and the Russo-Japanese War beyond recognition.

What Actually Happened

No 'holocaustal electrical stream' weapon appeared by 1888, though the machine gun (Maxim, 1884) and smokeless powder (1886) did transform warfare within his fifteen-year window. Russia remained dependent on foreign arms technology throughout the period — Berdan rifles designed by an American, naval vessels built in British yards. That dependency proved fatal at Tsushima in 1905, when Japan destroyed the Russian fleet with superior, largely domestically produced technology.

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