The Expected WorldEXPIRES: 1975
WRITTEN: 1965-04-19
The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least ten years.
Written: 1965-04-19
Addressed to: by 1975
Source: "Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits
Author: Gordon E. Moore
Category: Technology
Annotation
Moore's modest prediction — ten years of continued doubling — became the most consequential forecast in technology history. The trend continued for roughly sixty years, though the doubling period was later revised to 18-24 months. Moore's Law became a self-fulfilling prophecy, as the semiconductor industry organized its R&D roadmaps around it.
What Actually Happened
Transistor density continued doubling approximately every 18-24 months through the 2010s. The pace slowed in the 2020s but the cumulative effect was a trillion-fold increase in computing capability.
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