The Expected WorldEXPIRES: 2003
WRITTEN: 2003-02-07
It could last, you know, six days, six weeks. I doubt six months.
Written: 2003-02-07
Addressed to: 2003
Source: Interview with Steve Croft
Author: Donald Rumsfeld
Category: War & Conflict
Annotation
Rumsfeld's offhand timeline for the Iraq War became one of the most consequential underestimates in American military history. The major combat operations phase indeed lasted weeks, but the ensuing insurgency, sectarian war, and occupation lasted over eight years. The remark embodied the systemic optimism bias that characterized the invasion's planning.
What Actually Happened
The Iraq War lasted from March 2003 to December 2011 (8 years, 9 months). Over 4,400 US service members and an estimated 100,000-200,000 Iraqi civilians were killed.
#Iraq-war#military-planning#optimism-bias#occupation#Rumsfeld