E
The Expected World
expires
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Written
1998
Addressed to
2010

“TÉLÉVISION: L'objet le plus familier au monde. En 2010, plus de deux milliards de téléviseurs seront allumés en permanence. Ce ne sera pourtant pas un facteur de cohésion ou d'uniformité, mais plutôt de différenciation.”

Jacques Attali

Dictionaire du XXIe siècle

Annotation

Attali — Mitterrand's closest adviser for a decade, first president of the EBRD, and author of over eighty books — was characteristically precise: by 2010, global TV sets numbered roughly 1.5 billion, and his prediction of differentiation over uniformity proved sharper than most media forecasts of the era. In the 1970s, three US networks commanded 90 percent of prime-time audiences; by 2010 their combined share had dropped below 30 percent, and the monoculture had shattered into a thousand niche channels. Television did not unify the world. It gave everyone a different screen.

What Actually Happened

By 2010, global television sets numbered roughly 1.5 billion — short of Attali's two billion but in the right order of magnitude. His prediction of differentiation over uniformity proved accurate: in the United States, the three broadcast networks' combined prime-time share dropped from 90 percent in the 1970s to below 30 percent by 2010. Cable, satellite, and early streaming had shattered the monoculture into hundreds of niche channels and on-demand options.

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1888
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