0000
Written
1808
Addressed to
1858

The hordes are making daily inroads into the cultivated areas of Asia, spilling further and further beyond their natural boundary, the Himalayan mountain range that stretches from Bokhara to China. At our very gates, the hordes are surging all over Turkey. Fifty more years of persecution from the Ottoman Empire and we shall see the whole of that fine empire returned to the life of nomads or Tartars, who are making terrifying progress against Turkish domination.

Charles Fourier

The Theory of the Four Movements

Annotation

Fourier predicted the Ottoman Empire would collapse within fifty years and Turkey would return to nomadic life. By 1858, the Empire was in the middle of the Tanzimat reforms — its most ambitious modernization program — and had just fought the Crimean War with Britain and France as allies. The Empire did eventually dissolve, in 1922, but what replaced it was Atatürk's aggressively secular, modernizing Turkish Republic: the precise opposite of a return to the steppe.

What Actually Happened

The Ottoman Empire did not collapse by 1858, nor did Turkey return to nomadic life. By 1858, the Empire was in the middle of the Tanzimat reforms — its most ambitious modernization program — and had just fought the Crimean War (1853-1856) with Britain and France as allies. The Empire survived until 1922, and what replaced it was Atatürk's aggressively secular, modernizing Turkish Republic: the precise opposite of a return to the steppe.

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