0000
Written
1808
Addressed to
1858

The hordes are making daily inroads into the cultivated areas of Asia, spilling further and further beyond their natural boundary, the Himalayan mountain range that stretches from Bokhara to China. At our very gates, the hordes are surging all over Turkey. Fifty more years of persecution from the Ottoman Empire and we shall see the whole of that fine empire returned to the life of nomads or Tartars, who are making terrifying progress against Turkish domination.

Charles Fourier

The Theory of the Four Movements

Annotation

Fourier predicted the Ottoman Empire would collapse within fifty years and Turkey would return to nomadic life. By 1858, the Empire was in the middle of the Tanzimat reforms — its most ambitious modernization program — and had just fought the Crimean War with Britain and France as allies. The Empire did eventually dissolve, in 1922, but what replaced it was Atatürk's aggressively secular, modernizing Turkish Republic: the precise opposite of a return to the steppe.

What Actually Happened

The Ottoman Empire did not collapse by 1858, nor did Turkey return to nomadic life. By 1858, the Empire was in the middle of the Tanzimat reforms — its most ambitious modernization program — and had just fought the Crimean War (1853-1856) with Britain and France as allies. The Empire survived until 1922, and what replaced it was Atatürk's aggressively secular, modernizing Turkish Republic: the precise opposite of a return to the steppe.

Related Entries

1888
expired0000

At present weapons are being changed every ten years, and even more frequently. In another fifteen years or so, people will use for shooting not rifles but some kind of lightning, some sort of a machine emitting a holocaustal electrical stream. Tell me: what can we invent in this line so as to surprise our neighbors? What if in fifteen years every great power will have secretly stored away one such surprise for any kind of eventuality? Alas, we are merely capable of imitating and purchasing ammunition from others, and—at best—of repairing it at home. To invent such machines we should have to have our own independent, and not purchased, science, not an imported but a free one—one that has taken root in our soil. As yet we do not possess such a science, nor do we even have a purchased one.

Fyodor Mikhailovich DostoevskyWar & Conflict
1924
expired0000

The Great War had been the explosion of a vast accumulation of energy, moral and social as well as material. Europe might, and probably would, bicker, murder, bomb, massacre, and starve, but for another generation at least she would not have either the spirit or the discipline or the material to produce such munitions and such wide-sweeping concerted action as devastated her in the Great War. She is morally and physically bankrupt and prostrate. She may go on sinking, as Asia Minor sank, back even to barbarism. Even if she does not do so, it will take forty or fifty years to reassemble energy for another such world-wide outbreak.

H G WellsWar & Conflict