“So, one after another, either as pilots or passengers, will the members of the club ascend; and before the sheds are closed and the aerodrome deserted, each and all will have soared in flight, and tasted that thrill and exultation which comes of a rush in a plane through the cool of the evening air. But today, if we try to grasp such a notion as this, our state of mind is very like that of our grandfathers had some prophet dared tell them the day would dawn when, seated comfortably at dinner in a car on wheels, men would be drawn by an engine at 60 miles an hour: and yet the man or woman who has not, say twenty years hence, made a journey through the air, will be in exactly the same position as one who, at the present time, has never been by train.”

Claude Grahame-White

The Aeroplane

Annotation

Grahame-White, a pioneer aviator and tireless promoter, predicted mass air travel within twenty years. By 1934, US airlines carried a total of 460,000 passengers for the entire year — a rounding error compared to the railroads. The Douglas DC-3, which made commercial aviation economically viable, did not fly until 1935, and true mass air travel waited for the Boeing 707 (1958) and the 747 (1970). He was off by roughly a generation, which is the standard margin of error for predictions made by people in love with their own technology.

What Actually Happened

By 1934, US airlines carried a total of 460,000 passengers for the entire year — a rounding error compared to rail. The Douglas DC-3, which made commercial aviation economically viable, did not fly until 1935. True mass air travel arrived only with the Boeing 707 (1958) and the 747 (1970). Air travel was not remotely as universal in 1934 as train travel was in 1914; Grahame-White was off by roughly a generation.

Annotation

What Actually Happened

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