Annotation
Confirmed. Transpacific spot rates (Shanghai–LA) fell from over $12,000/FEU in September 2021 to below $1,000/FEU by March 2023. Container volumes to the US dropped nearly 20%. Carrier profits collapsed. The 'Great Recession' framing proved accurate for the 2023 freight market, which saw the worst downturn since 2009. After his October 2021 thread diagnosed the port congestion crisis, Petersen was among the first logistics insiders to call the dramatic reversal — from diagnosing congestion to calling overcapacity within 14 months.
What Actually Happened
Transpacific container spot rates (Shanghai-Los Angeles) collapsed from over $12,000/FEU in September 2021 to below $1,000/FEU by March 2023. Container volumes to the US fell nearly 20 percent year-over-year. Maersk announced 10,000 layoffs in November 2023. The freight downturn was the worst since 2009. The Red Sea crisis beginning in late 2023 temporarily reversed the decline, but by early 2026 rates had fallen back to pre-crisis levels as overcapacity reasserted itself.