The Expected WorldEXPIRES: 2025
WRITTEN: 1981
The standard of living has risen along with the size of the world's population since the beginning of recorded time. There is no convincing economic reason why these trends toward a better life should not continue indefinitely.
Written: 1981
Addressed to: indefinitely
Source: The Ultimate Resource
Author: Julian Simon
Category: Environment
Annotation
Simon's cornucopian thesis was the anti-Ehrlich, anti-Limits to Growth position. Through 2025, global average living standards did continue to rise, and extreme poverty fell from 44% in 1981 to under 10% by 2019. But climate change, which Simon barely addressed, posed a challenge to indefinite improvement that fit neither the optimist nor the pessimist framework cleanly.
What Actually Happened
Global extreme poverty declined from 44% (1981) to under 10% (2019). Global average living standards rose. Climate change emerged as a complicating factor not well captured by Simon's framework.
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