0000
Written
1924
Addressed to
1924-1974

The Great War had been the explosion of a vast accumulation of energy, moral and social as well as material. Europe might, and probably would, bicker, murder, bomb, massacre, and starve, but for another generation at least she would not have either the spirit or the discipline or the material to produce such munitions and such wide-sweeping concerted action as devastated her in the Great War. She is morally and physically bankrupt and prostrate. She may go on sinking, as Asia Minor sank, back even to barbarism. Even if she does not do so, it will take forty or fifty years to reassemble energy for another such world-wide outbreak.

H G Wells

A Year of Prophesying

Annotation

Wells gave Europe forty to fifty years before it could reassemble the energy for another world war. It took fifteen. The bitter irony is that Wells correctly identified every ingredient — he attacked Italian Fascism and warned about Hitler after the Beer Hall Putsch in the same book — but dramatically underestimated the speed at which exhaustion could curdle into something worse. Europe was not too bankrupt for war; it was incubating one.

What Actually Happened

Europe reassembled the energy for another world war not in forty or fifty years but in fifteen. Germany rearmed openly from 1935; the Second World War began in 1939, just twenty-one years after the Armistice. The conflict exceeded the Great War in every dimension — more combatants, more casualties, more territorial devastation — culminating in the industrialized genocide of the Holocaust and the use of atomic weapons.

Related Entries

1980
expires0000

Why did I pick on the next nine years instead of the next 900 for finding a solution to the population crisis? One answer is that the world is rapidly running out of food. And famine, of course, could be one way to reach a death rate solution to the population problem. In fact, the battle to feed humanity is already lost, in the sense that we will not be able to prevent large famines in the next decade or so.

Dr Paul R. EhrlichCulture & Society
1981
expires0000

In twenty years, the USSR will be producing almost twice as much industrial output as is now produced in the entire non socialist world.

The 22nd Congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet UnionCulture & Society
1888
expires0000

At present weapons are being changed every ten years, and even more frequently. In another fifteen years or so, people will use for shooting not rifles but some kind of lightning, some sort of a machine emitting a holocaustal electrical stream. Tell me: what can we invent in this line so as to surprise our neighbors? What if in fifteen years every great power will have secretly stored away one such surprise for any kind of eventuality? Alas, we are merely capable of imitating and purchasing ammunition from others, and—at best—of repairing it at home. To invent such machines we should have to have our own independent, and not purchased, science, not an imported but a free one—one that has taken root in our soil. As yet we do not possess such a science, nor do we even have a purchased one.

Fyodor Mikhailovich DostoevskyCulture & Society